Relational Approach to the Climate Narratives and Pastoral Conflicts: An Analysis of 2004-2013 Samburu-Pokot Conflict

Abstract (English)

This paper explores the relationship between climate change narratives and pastoralist’s conflicts which erupted between Samburu and Pokot in Northcentral Kenya in 2004 employing the relational/contextual approach. The relational/contextual approach (Konaka and Little, 2021; Konaka et al. 2023) looks at the dynamics that emerge within the specific relationships and contexts of local communities to explore the validity of arguments in development and humanitarian aid, avoiding assuming the universal applicability or reductionism of existing narratives.
To date, there has been numerous studies on the relationship between climate change and pastoralist’s conflicts in Northern Kenya mostly in Marsabit (Witsenburg and Adano 2007, 2009) and Turkana (Ember et al. 2012, 2014, Schilling et al. 2011, Opiyo et al. 2012) County. However, this topic has never been examined in Samburu West Division despite the intensity of the conflict. The author examined the field survey results focusing on 129 conflicts cases between Samburu and Pokot from 2004 to 2013 and analyzed the relationship with rainfall during the same period.
The analysis of the relationship between rainfall patterns and conflicts revealed a gradual pattern of correlation, with larger conflicts occurring during periods of heavier rainfall. Additionally, monthly results clearly showed that the scale of conflicts decreased during the dry season. Contrary to the climate change narrative, which suggests that conflicts intensify during the dry season when resources become scarce, the analysis results indicate the opposite. It suggests that pastoralists carefully avoid the potential conflict which may further deteriorate the drought-hit pastoralism. Therefore, different climate change logic from the mainstream climate change narrative, which predicts conflicts over scarce resources, is surely at work among the pastoralists.
Analysis of the relationship between rainfall and various data on an annual basis imply that the purpose of conflicts may not be livestock raiding but rather territorial acquisition which was driven by the climate change narrative promoted by politicians. The analysis results showing a tendency for conflicts to intensify during drought years appear to align with the climate change narrative at first glance. However, the conflict is not a natural consequence caused by climate change, but rather a reflection of the climate change narrative promoted by politicians. What the analysis revealed was not the direct causal relationship between climate change and conflict, but rather the different logic of pastoralists and the possibility that politics may have exploited the climate change narrative.
The findings of this analysis suggest that conflicts in African pastoral communities cannot be explained by the simple principles or generalizations often suggested by climate change narratives. Conflicts cannot be reduced to climate or politics. They must be analysed as dynamics arising from the complex relationships and contexts, where climate, politics, and the logic of nomadic pastoralists are intricately intertwined.